The public post
I shared all 24 picks in a thread on X before the ceremony wrapped up:
https://x.com/soneshzen/status/2033298811133817138
Monday, 16 March 2026 · 3:16 AM IST
18/24
Exact winners
22/24
Correct through runner-up
0
Post-hoc edits to the thread
Why I wrote it down in public
Oscar pools are fun because they force you to commit. Posting the ballot removes the luxury of hindsight. Either you called it or you did not. I had strong reads on the Sinners vs. One Battle After Another split, Frankenstein sweeping crafts, and KPop Demon Hunters taking animation and song. I also knew the first-ever casting category and several shorts categories were coin flips.
The misses mostly came from the same story: two films dominated the night, and I leaned Sinners where the Academy leaned One Battle After Another, or I picked the right film family but not the exact winner in a tight category. That is where the 22/24 runner-up score comes from. Only two picks were genuinely off the board.
Category by category
| # | Category | My pick | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Best Picture | Sinners | One Battle After Another | Miss |
| 2 | Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | Paul Thomas Anderson | Hit |
| 3 | Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Hit |
| 4 | Best Actress | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | Hit |
| 5 | Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Hit |
| 6 | Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan (Weapons) | Amy Madigan (Weapons) | Hit |
| 7 | Best Original Screenplay | Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | Hit |
| 8 | Best Adapted Screenplay | One Battle After Another | One Battle After Another | Hit |
| 9 | Best Animated Feature | KPop Demon Hunters | KPop Demon Hunters | Hit |
| 10 | Best International Feature | Norway (Sentimental Value) | Sentimental Value (Norway) | Hit |
| 11 | Best Documentary Feature | The Perfect Neighbor | Mr. Nobody Against Putin | Miss |
| 12 | Best Documentary Short | All the Empty Rooms | All the Empty Rooms | Hit |
| 13 | Best Animated Short | Butterfly | The Girl Who Cried Pearls | Miss |
| 14 | Best Live Action Short | Two People Exchanging Saliva | Two People Exchanging Saliva | Hit |
| 15 | Best Original Score | Ludwig Göransson (Sinners) | Ludwig Göransson (Sinners) | Hit |
| 16 | Best Original Song | "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters) | "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters) | Hit |
| 17 | Best Cinematography | One Battle After Another | Sinners | Miss |
| 18 | Best Film Editing | Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) | Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) | Hit |
| 19 | Best Production Design | Frankenstein | Frankenstein | Hit |
| 20 | Best Costume Design | Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) | Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) | Hit |
| 21 | Best Makeup & Hairstyling | Frankenstein | Frankenstein | Hit |
| 22 | Best Sound | F1 | F1 | Hit |
| 23 | Best Visual Effects | Avatar: The Way of Water | Avatar: Fire and Ash | Miss |
| 24 | Best Casting | Sinners (Francine Maisler) | One Battle After Another (Cassandra Kulukundis) | Miss |
What I got wrong (and how close it was)
- Best Picture: picked Sinners, won One Battle After Another. Both were the two-horse race all season.
- Best Documentary Feature: picked The Perfect Neighbor, won Mr. Nobody Against Putin. The Perfect Neighbor was in the hunt; the category stayed volatile.
- Best Animated Short: picked Butterfly, won The Girl Who Cried Pearls. Butterfly was on the shortlist; a tight category.
- Best Cinematography: picked One Battle After Another, won Sinners. Historic win for Autumn Durald Arkapaw; Sinners vs. One Battle was the split.
- Best Visual Effects: picked Avatar: The Way of Water, won Avatar: Fire and Ash. Same universe, wrong subtitle on my ballot. The franchise call was right.
- Best Casting: picked Sinners (Francine Maisler), won One Battle After Another (Cassandra Kulukundis). First year of the category; again the Sinners vs. One Battle split.
Takeaway
The 98th Oscars belonged to two films in different ways. One Battle After Another took the night with six awards including the inaugural casting Oscar. Sinners made history with sixteen nominations and landmark wins in cinematography and score. If you were watching the season, the ballot was really about reading that duopoly correctly category by category.
I added every film from my ballot, plus full filmographies for Christopher Nolan, Quentin Tarantino, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and Guillermo del Toro, to my movies list. Watch this space for more public calls. I prefer committing in the open.
Follow along on X (@soneshzen).